French Open 2026 Preview: Dark Horses, Nightmare Draws, and Final Prediction
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| World 1, Aryna Sabalenka |
Can Coco Gauff defend her title? We analyze the seeds, form, and draw to predict the semi-finals and final at Roland Garros 2026.
Anisimova, Andreeva, Ostapenko — the French Open 2026 draw has it all. See who we think makes the final and why...
The French Open starts in a few days, and the women’s draw is stacked with storylines. There isn’t one obvious favorite, since so many top players have a real shot. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is chasing her first Grand Slam title on clay, while Coco Gauff aims to defend her championship. The question is whether four-time winner Iga Swiatek can find her best form again.
We’ll break down who got a smoother path to the final and who faces a tougher run. You can also read our breakdown of the men’s draw here.
Top Quarter: Sabalenka’s Path Through Pegula and Osaka
Seeds in this section: Aryna Sabalenka (1), Jessica Pegula (5), Victoria Mboko (9), Naomi Osaka (16), Iva Jovic (17), Madison Keys (19), Diana Shnaider (25), Cristina Bucsa (31)
Sabalenka is still chasing her first Grand Slam title away from hard courts. After losing a close final to Coco Gauff at Roland Garros last year, she’ll be motivated to go one step further this time. Her quarter looks manageable overall, though she opens with a tough test against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro.
Ash is not behaving today 😅🫶#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/dyLfiBoXOP
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 22, 2026
A round four clash with Osaka would be a heavyweight match-up, but the Japanese star has never looked fully comfortable on clay. I still expect her to cruise into the quarter-finals. From the other side of that section, I see either Pegula or Mboko joining her.
By the way, Jovic versus Alexandra Eala is a great first-round match in this part of the draw.
Prediction: Sabalenka to beat Pegula in the quarter-finals. Sabalenka is rock solid at Slams and you can count on her reaching at least the semi-finals. I expect Pegula to make just her second French Open quarter-final, but I think she comes up short against Sabalenka.
Quarter 2: Gauff Leads a Manageable Section
Seeds: Coco Gauff (4), Amanda Anisimova (6), Linda Noskova (12), Ekaterina Alexandrova (14), Anna Kalinskaya (22), Elise Mertens (23), Anastasia Potapova (28), Ann Li (30)
Gauff Gets a Favorable Path
Coco Gauff has landed in the softer half of the draw and should be happy with her section. She opens against Taylor Townsend in what should be an entertaining first-round match. In-form Anastasia Potapova could cause problems in round three, but beyond that, the route looks straightforward for the defending champion.
Amanda Anisimova is harder to predict. She reached the French Open semi-finals in 2019 and made the Wimbledon and US Open finals last year, so she has the game to win a Slam and is a serious threat on her day. That said, she hasn’t built much momentum in 2026 due to injuries and inconsistent form.
Prediction: Gauff to beat Noskova in the quarter-finals. I’m backing Gauff to reach the semi-finals regardless of who she faces in the last eight, but I’m unsure who that opponent will be. If Anisimova finds her rhythm, I’d probably pick her. Since that’s uncertain, I’ll go with Noskova. Either way, I think Gauff has too much for both.
Quarter 3: Swiatek Faces a Tough Road
Seeds: Iga Swiatek (3), Elina Svitolina (7), Belinda Bencic (11), Marta Kostyuk (15), Clara Tauson (21), Leylah Fernandez (24), Jelena Ostapenko (29), Wang Xinyu (32)
Difficult Draw for the Queen of Clay
We’re now in the tougher half of the draw, and this is a nightmare section for Iga Swiatek. The Pole hasn’t been at her best lately, and clay hasn’t been the automatic advantage it once was. She looked a bit sharper in Rome under new coach Francisco Roig, but her draw remains the main problem.
Jelena Ostapenko could be waiting in the third round, and she’s a nightmare match-up for Swiatek with a 6-0 head-to-head record. On top of that, recent WTA 1000 champions Marta Kostyuk and Elina Svitolina are in the same quarter. It’s hard to imagine a trickier path.
Quarter 4: Rybakina Leads a Loaded Section
Seeds: Elena Rybakina (2), Mirra Andreeva (8), Karolina Muchova (10), Jasmine Paolini (13), Sorana Cirstea (18), Liudmila Samsonova (20), Hailey Baptiste (26), Marie Bouzkova (27)
Rybakina Favored, But Competition Is Fierce
Elena Rybakina is the clear favorite to come through this quarter. That said, there are plenty of players in this section playing strong tennis right now, so it won’t be an easy path.
Mirra Andreeva has been excellent on clay and made the quarter-finals here last year. Karolina Muchova is a former French Open finalist, Sorana Cirstea is playing the best tennis of her career at 36, and Hailey Baptiste announced herself by beating Sabalenka in Madrid recently.
Prediction: Rybakina to beat Andreeva in the quarter-finals. This would be a great match-up and could turn into a real battle. I’m backing Australian Open champion Rybakina, who has arguably been the best player in the world this year. She’s looked a bit tired lately from playing nearly every big event, but a short break should have her coming into this tournament fresher. She’s never gone beyond the quarter-finals here, so this would mark her best run in Paris.
Semi-final and Final Predictions
- Semi-final 1: Gauff to beat Sabalenka
- Semi-final 2: Rybakina to beat Svitolina
- Final: Gauff to beat Rybakina
Why I’m Backing Gauff to Retain the Title
I’m picking Gauff to defend her crown, mainly because of how impressive she looked in Rome despite losing the final to Svitolina. Clay is her best surface, and she’s incredibly difficult to beat thanks to her athleticism and defensive skills. She’s also cleaned up her serve and forehand on clay.
A special moment ahead of the draw with Coco Gauff at Le Royal Monceau – Raffles Paris ✨#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/Ghwk521TOj
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 21, 2026
She beat Sabalenka in last year’s final, and the Belarusian struggles against her because of Gauff’s resilience and ability to keep balls in play. I think the result will be the same this year.
The other semi-final could go either way, but if Rybakina is playing at her best by that stage, I think her top level will be too much for Svitolina. That would send her to her first French Open final.
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| Coco Gauff claimed the title in 2025 |
The match-up is fascinating because they’ve only played once before, back in 2022, so there’s almost nothing to go on. It would be huge for Rybakina to start the year with two majors and claim her first title in Paris. But I’m backing Gauff to go back-to-back purely for her tenacity and how well she handles this surface.
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