Bafana's World Cup Fate Hinges on Tuesday's Match

Bafana Bafana's last stand, win or miss out

South Africa's World Cup fate hangs in the balance. Can Bafana secure a win against Rwanda and keep their hopes alive?

For South Africa to qualify, they need to win against Rwanda and hope Nigeria beats Benin...

South Africa's World Cup fate is now out of their hands, but they still need to win against Rwanda on Tuesday. A victory is the bare minimum to keep their hopes alive.

The 0-0 draw against Zimbabwe was a letdown, with the team criticized for a timid performance despite hitting the woodwork twice and having a shot cleared off the line.

Benin is currently in a strong position heading into the final round, but they'll face a tough challenge as they travel to Nigeria. The Super Eagles' 2-1 win over Lesotho has reignited their hopes, and both teams will be highly motivated to secure a win.

Nigeria knows they need to win by at least two clear goals and hope South Africa slip up against Rwanda to stand any chance of automatic qualification. Even then, they'd still need to match South Africa's goal difference in the event of a points tie.

South Africa's World Cup Hopes

Bafana Bafana's fate now rests on other teams' results, but a win against Rwanda is the bare minimum to keep their World Cup dreams alive.

Their 0-0 draw with Zimbabwe was a letdown, with fans criticizing the team's timid performance despite hitting the woodwork twice and having a shot cleared off the line. South Africa needs a strong showing against Rwanda to put pressure on other teams in the group.

Benin's Path to Qualification

Benin can secure their first-ever World Cup spot by beating Nigeria. Even a draw could suffice if South Africa fails to beat Rwanda.

Bafana Bafana captain Ronwen William's message to South Africans: "I urge you to please stay positive. "#BafanaPride@SABC_Sport @flysaa pic.twitter.com/oef9BmxFma

— Bafana Bafana (@BafanaBafana) October 11, 2025

For South Africa to qualify, they need to win against Rwanda and hope Nigeria beats Benin. If Benin draws, South Africa would need to win by at least three goals to edge them out on goal difference.

Nigeria's path to qualification is the most difficult. They need to beat Benin by at least two clear goals and hope South Africa fails to win against Rwanda. If South Africa secures a victory, Nigeria's chances of qualifying as group leaders will vanish regardless of their result.

"There's still so much to play for." - Bafana Bafana striker Lyle Foster #BafanaPride@SABC_Sport @flysaa pic.twitter.com/RGnlXUTaP4

— Bafana Bafana (@BafanaBafana) October 12, 2025

Qualification Scenarios for Benin and Nigeria

If Benin and Nigeria draw, they'll be level on 18 points. Given Benin's current +5 goal difference and Bafana's +3, South Africa would need to beat Rwanda by two clear goals to draw level with Benin.

To surpass Benin, Bafana would need to maintain a significant lead. If both teams are level on points and goal difference, the tiebreaker would be goals scored. Bafana currently have 12 goals, so beating Rwanda by two goals would take them to at least 14 goals.

If Benin draws 0-0, 1-1, or 2-2, Bafana would qualify due to their head-to-head advantage, having won both matches 2-1 and 2-0. However, a 3-3 draw would put Benin through on goals scored if Bafana don't score more than two goals.

Nigeria Beats Benin: Qualification Implications

If Nigeria beats Benin, Bafana will qualify for the World Cup if they beat Rwanda. However, if Bafana loses or draws, Nigeria will qualify with a 1-0 win, being level with Benin on points (17), goal difference (+4), goals scored (12), and head-to-head (2-2). In this scenario, Nigeria would advance due to away goals, having scored 2 goals away in the 2-2 draw. If Nigeria wins 2-1, the tiebreaker would come down to Fair Play points or potentially a draw of lots.