7 YEARS LATER, THE ECONOMY AND OTHER FACTORS DOMINATE THE BUHARI ADMINISTRATION

Mohammed Buhari

After eight years, President Muhammadu Buhari's administration will finish in less than two months.

In 2015, the government came to office on a platform of change, offering Nigerians a better deal than that of the Goodluck Jonathan administration at the time.

According to Nigeria's constitutional democracy, Buhari was sworn in for a second term on May 29, 2019, and will leave office on May 29, 2023, when the nation is anticipated to elect a new administration.

During his two terms in office, President Buhari was supported by the All Progressives Congress, the organization that gave birth to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the president-elect, who will succeed him.

One of the best things that have ever happened to the nation, according to the Buhari government. The government has asserted on numerous occasions that it has delivered on the most, if not all, of the promises it made to Nigerians during its campaigns.

What were some of the promises made by the current administration before the 2019 election?

Buhari has pledged to Nigerians that he will, among other things, hire one million N-power graduates and work with the business sector to train ten million Nigerians; increase the number of students receiving school meals from 9.3 million to 15 million, adding 300,000 jobs for farmers and food vendors; complete the Ibadan/Kano phase of the Lagos/Kano rail link; complete the Port Harcourt/Maiduguri line; complete the Itakpa/Warri link to Abuja, through Lokoja; complete the Second Niger Bridge and the East West Road connecting Warri, Delta State, to Oron, Akwa Ibom State, through Kaiama and Port Harcourt in Bayelsa and Rivers State; establish a people's Moni bank; institutionalise the giving of soft loans of up to 1million naira to small traders, artisans and commercial drivers; increase the beneficiaries of trader Moni, market Moni and farmer Moni from 2.3 million to 10 million; create more room for inclusion in government by achieving 35% in female appointments.

A special mentoring program in governance with young graduates working with ministers and other appointees was also promised. The education curriculum would be reinterpreted through coding, robotics, animations, and design thinking. All teachers in public primary and secondary schools would be retrained to deliver digital literacy. Public schools would be remodeled and equipped.

Other promises of the President Buhari administration prior to the 2019 presidential election are- to establish 109 Special Production and Processing Centres (SPPCs) across each senatorial district of Nigeria; develop the Special Economic zone to quickly concretize our made in Nigeria for export (MINE) plan; expand the social investment program so as to eradicate poverty; ensure completion of Mambilla Dam and Bridge; ensure the construction of the Makurdi Taraba Borno rail project; complete the bridges across the stretch of River Benue in Ibi local government area; continue to pursue agricultural policy by ensuring that fertilisers are made available at all the local government areas across the country, for easy access by farmers; 

Before to the 2019 presidential election, President Buhari's administration also pledged to create 109 Special Production and Processing Centers (SPPCs) in each of Nigeria's senatorial districts; Expand the social investment program to end poverty, build the Mambilla Dam and Bridge, and ensure the Makurdi Taraba Borno rail project are all completed. Create the Special Economic Zone to help us quickly realize our made in Nigeria for export (MINE) plan. finish the bridges spanning the section of the River Benue in the Local Government Area of Ibi; continue to pursue agricultural policy by making sure that fertilisers are made accessible to farmers in all Local Government Areas across the nation; resuscitate the Ajaokuta Steel Company; ensure the completion of the on-going Zungeru Hydro Power project and include persons of integrity in the cabinet.

Whether this administration has remained true to the people is a contentious issue.

Notwithstanding this, the Buhari administration has consistently argued that its performance far exceeds that of the previous administrations. For instance, Lai Mohammed, the minister of information and culture, claimed on numerous occasions that the Buhari government has supported states with various financial interventions more than any other administration since the start of the present political era in 1999.

To support his assertions, the minister went on to introduce the PMB Administration Scorecard Series (2015–2023), which he said would highlight the many accomplishments of the Buhari government.

The Minister oversaw the presentation of scorecards by all the ministries, as well as several Managing Directors and agency heads.

In addition, President Buhari has stated that the economy, security, and fight against corruption are all better than when he first arrived in Nigeria in 2015.

Remember that on June 20, the Nigerian president said in a written answer to Bloomberg that his administration is departing the country in a "much better place than we found it."

Yet, it won't be out of place to note that a lot has transpired since the President assumed office in 2015, replacing Dr. Goodluck Jonathan's government.

Nigerians will have to determine how accurate it is that the country is better off than the APC administration found it in 2015 after some fact-checking by MON DIARIES.

The track record of Buhari's economic success.

When Buhari assumed office in 2015, Nigeria's inflation rate averaged 9%, but since then it has increased dramatically. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, or NBS, the country's inflation rate increased to a 16-year high under the present administration as a result of rising prices and weak purchasing power.

While the rural inflation rate increased to 16.32 percent in April 2022 from 17.57 percent in April 2021, the urban inflation rate increased from 18.68 percent to 17.35 percent (year-over-year) in April 2022.

Inflation increased to 15.68% in 2016 and then surged to 16.52% in 2017. In 2018 and 2019, the percentages fell to 12.09% and 11.40%, respectively. The inflation rate reached 12.2% by 2020 and reached 16.95% by the end of 2021.

According to NBS, the inflation rate reached 17.71% in May 2021.

Nigeria's food inflation, meanwhile, was 9.2% in 2014. In the end of 2015, it was 10.4%; in 2016, it was 17.4%; in 2017, it was 19.42%; in 2018, it was 13.56%; in 2019, it was 14.67%; and in 2020, it was 19.56%.

According to data made public by the NBS, food inflation increased to 20.57 percent year-over-year in January 2021, the highest level in more than 11 years. In December 2021, it reached a close of 17.37 percent.

However, a rise in the cost of basic foods across the nation in May caused the food inflation to surge to 19.5%.

According to the NBS, the unemployment rate increased from 8.2% in the second quarter to 9.9% in the third quarter of that year. Since then, unemployment, poverty, and economic disempowerment have affected Nigeria. More than 23.2 million people are unemployed in Nigeria once Buhari leaves office, the biggest number in at least 13 years and the second-highest rate in the world.

In a similar vein, the most recent NBS study on poverty revealed that about 95 million Nigerians, or more than 65% of the country's population, live in poverty.

According to the 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index survey, 63% of Nigeria's 133 million residents (or people) are multidimensionally Door.

Just six months after Mr. Buhari's inauguration as president, in November 2015, the naira traded at N197 to the dollar. The exchange rate between then and now is roughly N750 to $1.

In a similar line, since Mr. Buhari assumed office, Nigeria's debt profile has significantly increased as budgetary recommendations have been heavily centered around debt.

Nigeria's debt profile was N12.12 trillion as of June 2015, but is now N46.25 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). This comprises the debt owed by the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and the 36 state governments.

President Buhari's administration has borrowed three times as much as the previous administrations of Olusegun Obasanjo, Shehu Musa Yar'Adua, and Goodluck Jonathan combined.

Considering the aforementioned data on unemployment, inflation, exchange rate, GDP, recession, food prices, and debt level, it is clear that during the outgoing administration, things only got worse.

There have been successes in the issue of security, particularly in the North East where regular life is slowly returning while other regions of the nation have turned into violent enclaves. Another significant security concern that the incoming administration will be attempting to address is kidnapping for ransom.

Also, the recently completed general elections demonstrated how the incumbent administration handled the nation's diversity poorly. Nigerians were so split along racial and religious lines that many polling places did not allow certain voters to cast ballots.

Apart from the North East's triumphs, the President would be quite worried about leaving a nation with a weak security system.

Corruption is thought to be on the rise in the Buhari administration despite his anti-corruption crusade.

Once they joined the All Progressives Congress, or APC, led by President Muhammadu Buhari and people like Plateau State's Joshua Dariye and Taraba State's Jolly Nyame, who had all been convicted of corruption and sentenced to prison but were later released on pardons, these individuals who had a history of being corrupt left their previous political parties and instantly became saints.

Engineer Daniel Kadzai, a former National President of the Youth Wing of the Christian Association of Nigeria (YOWICAN) and Co-Chairman of the Interfaith Coalition Conference, responded to MON DIARIES' inquiries about whether the outgoing President had fulfilled his promises to the people of Nigeria by explaining that the Buhari administration had achieved success in the areas of infrastructure, education, and combating insurgency in the North East but did nothing in the South.

"In the last four years, we had expected the current administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to curtail the issue of insecurity that has bedevilled this nation.

"When you look at the indices, the performance is below our expectations. Number two is the issue of the welfare of the citizens of our nation. I really don't know why we had to go through the recent cash crisis.

"I know of a woman who lost her relative because she couldn't pay N3000 since the hospital said they don't collect money through transfers.

"Again we're now buying fuel for N350 and this is what we were buying for N86. He is the minister of petroleum," he said.

"To be honest, when you talk about the insecurity in the North East, the Boko Haram insurgency has minimised tremendously. I can tell you I was in a park to drop somebody travelling to Borno State through Yola. Nobody could pass that road two years ago but now people are using it to pass through to Maiduguri.

"But generally speaking, the issue of kidnapping is resuscitation again and far beyond our expectations.

"We thought Nigerians would have been more united even at the end of this tenure. We had expected the nation to be together but when you look at even the voting pattern adopted in the 2023 election, it was more like Christians vs Muslims stuff.

"The unity of this nation is paramount. Yorubas were voting in favour of their Yoruba candidate, Igbo were voting... and so on and this gives you the signal that truly something is wrong.

"I hope that in the final two months of his tenure, he is going to right these wrongs. He should hand over to someone who is going to unite this nation and somebody who was duly elected by the people of Nigeria

"Now in terms of infrastructure, I'll say that the President has done his best. When you travel from Abuja to Benue, there's a dual carriageway that was constructed in the last two years. It's about 65% under completion.

"When you also drive from Lamorode to Yola, that road was very bad but now they're almost completing it. Then between Gombe, Yola and Borno, the road is also good.

"Then you can see work is going on between Abuja and Kaduna, these are roads I have plied. Then the Lokoja and Ajaokuta road; then in Lagos when you go to places like Sele, VI there are massive road constructions going on. Then you talk about the railways [even the second Niger Bridge]. The railway stations are now in operation.

"Then in the area of health, God has helped us in this nation in respect to COVID-19; the federal government managed the pandemic very well, otherwise we would have had more casualties. They managed that very well. In the area of education, I think they have established a lot of federal government colleges, polytechnics and universities.

"But in the area of security and national unity I'll urge that Mr. President put these things in place before he exits office so that we can celebrate him.

"I also hope that at the end of this administration, we'll exchange dollars at N500 and not the current N750 rate. There is hunger in the land. I can tell you sincerely there's hunger and people are suffering.

"The suffering is excessive because even some government workers can no longer feed their families. You can say it boldly without any iota of doubt that Nigerians are really really suffering," he concluded.