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New Champion on the Horizon? Europa League Favorites

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Aston Villa are the favourites to win this season's UEFA Europa League



The UEFA Europa League will start its 17th campaign under its current guise - the second in the league phase era - on Wednesday and Thursday, and this season, there is quite a bit to look forward to.


The UEFA Europa League is set to deliver thrilling matches and unexpected results, with four top contenders and a 95.7% chance of a first-time winner...



Here are three reasons why the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League season will be unforgettable:

New Format, New Excitement

The UEFA Europa League has introduced a new format, replacing the traditional group stage with a 36-team league phase. Each team will play eight matches against different opponents, with four home and four away games. This format promises to bring more excitement and unpredictability to the competition.



Star-Studded Teams and Debutants

The Europa League features some of Europe's top teams, including AS Roma, Aston Villa, Bologna FC, and FC Porto. Additionally, teams like Aston Villa, Bologna, Brann, Go Ahead Eagles, and Nottingham Forest will make their debut appearances in a major UEFA competition group or league phase, adding a fresh dynamic to the competition.


Iconic Venues and Knockout Stage Thrills

The competition will culminate in the final, scheduled to take place on May 20, 2026, at the Beşiktaş Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey. The knockout stage will feature thrilling matches, with the top eight ranked teams receiving a bye to the round of 16 and teams ranked 9th to 24th contesting the knockout phase play-offs.





A New Champion on the Horizon?

The UEFA Europa League has consistently delivered a wide range of winners throughout its history. With nine different champions across its first 16 editions, representing five distinct nations, the competition has proven to be highly unpredictable. Notably, no country has achieved consecutive wins since Sevilla's triumph in 2019-20, followed by Villarreal's victory in 2020-21.


Unprecedented Season Ahead

This season's UEFA Europa League promises to be particularly unique, with only one former winner participating in the league phase - Porto, who secured the title 15 years ago in the competition's second edition. Porto stands out as the sole winner from outside Europe's top five leagues to claim the trophy. Furthermore, teams like Braga, Rangers, and Roma have previously reached the Europa League finals, adding to the excitement of the current season.


Feyenoord stands out as a two-time winner of the UEFA Cup/Europa League, aside from other champions. Several teams have reached the final of the competition's predecessor, including Celtic, Crvena Zvezda, RB Salzburg, and Stuttgart.


According to Opta, Porto has a 4.3% chance of claiming their third UEFA Cup/Europa League title, ranking them eighth among favorites. This implies a significant 95.7% probability of a first-time winner in the current era. Meanwhile, Feyenoord's slightly higher chance at 5.2% translates to a 90.5% likelihood of a new champion when considering the entire UEFA Cup history.


Given these statistics, this season might indeed favor a maiden winner, making the competition even more thrilling.




Diverse Representation in the Europa League

The 2024-25 UEFA Europa League features 36 teams from 23 different national associations, showcasing a wide range of European football. France and the Netherlands are represented with three teams each, while England, Italy, Spain, Germany, Portugal, Greece, Austria, Switzerland, and Scotland each have two clubs participating.


Notably, among the teams from the “Big Five” leagues, only Roma and Real Betis have reached a European final in the 21st century. Although Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest have historic European Cup wins, their successes date back several decades. Roma, however, has consistently performed well in European competitions, reaching two finals in the past four years.


Beyond the “Big Five” leagues, several clubs with impressive European credentials are participating in the Europa League. Teams like Rangers, Fenerbahce, Celtic, RB Salzburg, and Basel have extensive experience competing at this level. Porto and Feyenoord, previously discussed, also bring a wealth of European pedigree to the draw.


This season's Europa League features teams with notable histories in the competition. Twenty of the 36 participating teams have reached this stage six or more times, with Braga and PAOK leading the pack with 10 appearances each. Additionally, Celtic, Fenerbahce, FCSB, Ludogorets, and RB Salzburg have all made nine appearances, showcasing their consistency and expertise in European competitions.




Aston Villa, Bologna, Brann, Go Ahead Eagles, and Nottingham Forest are set to make their debuts in the UEFA Europa League group phase. Notably, Go Ahead Eagles and Nottingham Forest will be participating in a group phase for the very first time in any European competition, adding an extra layer of excitement to their inaugural appearances.


The 2025-26 UEFA Europa League promises to be particularly thrilling, with a significant turnover of 58% from last season's league phase. This fresh dynamic is expected to bring about new rivalries and unexpected outcomes, making the competition highly unpredictable and captivating for fans.


Unpredictable Europa League Season Ahead

Given the strength of the Premier League, it's common to focus on top teams, but this year's Europa League is remarkably competitive, making it tough to pinpoint an overwhelming favorite. Aston Villa has a 21.6% chance of winning their second European trophy, according to Opta.


What's striking is that exactly half of the 36 participating clubs have at least a 1% chance of lifting the trophy in Istanbul. This highlights the balance and quality of teams involved, setting it apart from the Champions League, where only 13 teams have a 1% chance or better, and the Conference League, with 14 teams. The likelihood of a new champion is substantial, with Porto having a 95.7% chance of not winning and Feyenoord at 90.5%.




This year's UEFA Europa League promises to be an exciting competition, with four top contenders having a 10% or higher chance of winning and three more with at least a 5% chance. Aston Villa leads the pack with odds of 7.00 to win the title, followed closely by AS Roma at 10.00. Other strong contenders include Bologna, FC Porto, and Nottingham Forest, each with odds of 11.00.


The Europa League has become increasingly competitive, with a high likelihood of a new champion emerging. According to Opta, Aston Villa has a 21.6% chance of winning, while Porto has a 4.3% chance, implying a 95.7% probability of a first-time winner in the current era. Feyenoord's 5.2% chance translates to a 90.5% likelihood of a maiden winner when considering the entire UEFA Cup history.


With so many talented teams participating, fans can expect thrilling matches, unexpected results, and dramatic moments throughout the competition. The next nine months are shaping up to be an unforgettable ride for Europa League enthusiasts.



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