Sudan on Brink: Airstrikes Intensify as Conflict Spreads

Sudan Conflict Escalates - Army Intensifies Airstrikes

“There won't be a decisive breakthrough...” 

UN appeals for peace as Sudan army, RSF clashes displace thousands. General Al-Burhan calls for RSF withdrawal & disarmament. International pressure mounts.

The situation in Sudan is growing increasingly dire as the rainy season comes to a close, with fighting intensifying between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The army is escalating airstrikes and deploying allied fighters to bolster its position, anticipating a potential counteroffensive from the RSF. This surge in violence will only exacerbate the already catastrophic humanitarian crisis, marked by widespread famine and displacement of over 10 million people - approximately one-fifth of the population.

Humanitarian Crisis Worsens

The conflict has led to severe food insecurity, with 25.6 million people facing acute hunger, including 755,000 on the brink of famine. The International Organization for Migration reports that 10.7 million people are now internally displaced, with 55% being children under 18. The situation is further complicated by limited access to basic services, human rights violations, trauma, and violence.

Displacement and Food Insecurity

The displacement crisis in Sudan is one of the largest globally, with over 20% of the population forced to flee their homes. Food insecurity is a pressing concern, with 97% of internally displaced persons hosted in localities with high levels of acute food insecurity. The majority of displaced families struggle to afford daily food requirements, highlighting the urgent need for humanitarian aid.

UN Response Challenges

United Nations agencies face significant challenges in providing aid, with the 2024 Sudan Response Plan only one-third funded as of July. Humanitarians require urgent additional resources to scale up their response and address the growing needs of the affected population. The situation in Sudan demands immediate attention and support to mitigate the devastating consequences of the ongoing conflict.

A senior Western diplomat in the region has expressed a bleak outlook on the situation in Sudan, stating, “There won't be a decisive breakthrough.” This candid assessment comes as the rainy season draws to a close, and fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is escalating. The diplomat's warning suggests that the conflict will become even more complex, with increased involvement of armed groups and further fragmentation.

This development is particularly concerning, as Sudan is already grappling with a severe humanitarian crisis. After nearly 18 months of conflict, famine has been confirmed, and over 10 million people - approximately one-fifth of the population - are displaced. The situation is expected to worsen, with intensified airstrikes and the deployment of allied fighters.

The diplomat's remarks highlight the need for sustained international attention and support to address the deepening crisis in Sudan.

“What we expect to come into the fall more and more is much more fragmentation, to see more armed groups getting involved.

“And this will make the situation in general much more difficult.”

The Sudanese army has launched its largest offensive yet in Khartoum, capital of Sudan, making significant gains against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) after the RSF skipped US-led peace talks in Switzerland. The army successfully captured key bridges over the Nile River, including the Halfaya Bridge, breaking a stalemate that had lasted over a year. This strategic victory allows the army to link up with previously besieged units and puts them within striking distance of the RSF-held areas in Khartoum.

The army's advance is backed by drone technology, likely supplied by Iran or Turkey, which has given them an edge in the conflict. The drones have been used to monitor RSF movements, target their positions, and guide artillery strikes, making it harder for the RSF to defend their territory.

The situation remains dire, with reports of civilian casualties and widespread destruction. The UN has expressed concerns about the escalating violence and its impact on the humanitarian crisis, which has left millions displaced and struggling to access basic necessities. The international community is calling for a ceasefire and renewed negotiations to bring an end to the conflict.

In Sudan's Darfur region, a united front has formed to defend al-Fashir, the army's last stronghold in the west, against relentless attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Former rebel groups and volunteers from displacement camps have joined forces to protect this strategic location.

The Sudanese army has been gearing up for a potential showdown, replenishing its arsenal with drones and warplanes, and training fresh volunteers to boost its ground presence ahead of any negotiations. This buildup is likely a response to the RSF's aggressive advances, which have plagued the region since April 2023.

Eyewitnesses in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahri report an uptick in airstrikes, with the army deploying more drones and fighter jets than ever before. The increased military activity has raised concerns about civilian safety and the potential for further displacement. The UN has warned of a worsening humanitarian crisis, with over 25 million people facing acute hunger and 11 million displaced.

Key Developments:

Increased Military Presence: The Sudanese army has bolstered its forces in al-Fashir, Darfur's capital.

Airstrikes and Drone Deployment: Residents in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahri report increased airstrikes and drone activity.

Humanitarian Crisis: The conflict has led to widespread famine, displacement, and a cholera outbreak, with 473 reported deaths.

The situation remains dire, with international organizations urging a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The UN has called for humanitarian pauses to allow aid to reach civilians, but the warring parties have yet to agree.

The conflict in Sudan is reaching a critical point. As the rainy season ends, the army has utilized its air power to launch strikes on areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital, Darfur, and El Gezira state. However, with the dry season approaching and roads becoming more accessible, the RSF's ground forces are likely to gain the upper hand due to their superior numbers and mobility.

Reports from Sennar and the capital confirm intense fighting on October 4, indicating an escalation of the conflict. This surge in violence is particularly concerning, as Sudan is already grappling with one of the fastest-unfolding humanitarian crises globally. The situation is further complicated by both sides receiving material support from foreign allies, according to diplomats and analysts.

Vital Concerns:

Humanitarian Crisis: Over 25 million people require humanitarian assistance, with 17.7 million facing acute food insecurity and 4.9 million on the brink of famine.

Displacement: More than 8 million people have been displaced, with 6.2 million seeking refuge within Sudan and 1.8 million fleeing to neighboring countries.

Disease Outbreaks: Cholera, measles, malaria, and dengue fever outbreaks are spreading, exacerbated by disrupted healthcare services and limited access to medical supplies.

Economic Contraction: Sudan's economy is projected to shrink by 18.3% in 2024, worsening the humanitarian situation.

The conflict in Sudan escalated in April 2023 as the army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) clashed over power and resources ahead of a proposed transition to civilian governance and free elections. The RSF, born out of the Janjaweed militias that helped the government quell a rebellion in Darfur in the early 2000s, swiftly took control of much of the capital and solidified its grip on Darfur and El Gezira state, south of Khartoum.

This year, the army gained ground in Omdurman, Sudan, following the acquisition of Iranian drones, but progress was slow until a surprise counteroffensive was launched last week. The conflict has devastating consequences, with over 25 million people needing humanitarian assistance, 17.7 million facing acute food insecurity, and 4.9 million on the brink of famine. The situation is dire, with disease outbreaks, displacement, and economic contraction wreaking havoc on the country.

Key Conflict Timeline:

April 2023: Conflict escalates between the army and RSF

Early 2000s: Janjaweed militias help government suppress Darfur rebellion 

2024: Army gains in Omdurman, followed by surprise counteroffensive

Humanitarian Crisis:

25 million: People in need of humanitarian assistance

17.7 million: Facing acute food insecurity

4.9 million: On the brink of famine 

8.6 million: Displaced people

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese army, has called for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to withdraw and disarm, emphasizing that this is a crucial step towards achieving peace in Sudan. This statement was made on the same day that the army and RSF clashed, highlighting the complexity of the situation. The conflict between the two forces has resulted in significant human suffering, including thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of displaced people, particularly in El Geneina, West Darfur.

The situation on the ground remains dire, with reports of ethnic cleansing, war crimes, and crimes against humanity committed by the RSF and allied militias. The international community has been urged to take action, including deploying a protection mission and imposing sanctions on those responsible for atrocities.

In this context, General al-Burhan's statement underscores the need for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, which has been ongoing since April 2023. The RSF's withdrawal and disarmament would be a significant step towards stability, but it remains to be seen how this will be achieved.