Playoffs & Prayers: Sweden's World Cup Qualifiers

Sweden's World Cup fate: what awaits?

Sweden's path to the 2026 World Cup involves the playoffs, where they'll face Ukraine in the semi-finals on March 26, 2026. If they win, they'll play the winner of Poland vs. Albania in the final on March 31, 2026.

The playoffs involve 16 European nations, with 12 group runners-up and four Nations League group winners competing for four World Cup spots...

Sweden's qualification campaign has been a disaster, with four matches without a win in their group, leading to the sacking of head coach Jon Dahl Tomasson. Graham Potter took over, but his tenure hasn't been smooth sailing either, with one draw and one loss in the final two qualifiers, leaving Sweden bottom of Group B.

Despite this, Sweden still has ambitions of making it to the 2026 World Cup in North America. They've secured a playoff spot through the Nations League, and their next hurdle is the playoff draw happening tomorrow.

The playoffs involve 16 European nations, with 12 group runners-up and four Nations League group winners competing for four World Cup spots. Sweden secured a playoff spot via the Nations League route after finishing fourth in their group.

Sweden's Dream Draw: Canada & Co.

Sweden's best-case scenario would be a group with Canada, Australia, and South Africa. This would give them a relatively easier path to the World Cup.

🇸🇪 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗲 🇸🇮

▪️ Graham Potters första hemmalandskamp
▪️ Avslutning av VM-kvalgruppspelet
▪️ Årets sista herrlandskamp

📰 https://t.co/DBB87KXnG7 pic.twitter.com/ymmqZuLc5C

— Svensk Fotboll (@svenskfotboll) November 18, 2025

Group of Doom

On the other hand, Sweden could be drawn into a tough group with Argentina, Croatia, and Morocco. This would make it extremely challenging for them to qualify.

The playoff draw will determine Sweden's fate, with their semi-final opponent likely to be Ukraine. The stakes are high, and Sweden will be hoping to turn their fortunes around.

Sweden were expected to challenge Switzerland for the top spot, but it didn't quite work out. They finished below Kosovo and Slovenia, 12 points behind Switzerland.

Their UEFA Nations League performance is what got them to the playoffs, securing a spot as one of the best group winners not to finish top two in their qualifying group.

The Semi-final against Ukraine will be played on neutral territory due to the ongoing war.

Sweden's potential final match will be at home, at Strawberry Arena in Solna - a big advantage for them.

Sweden wants to make it to the World Cup after missing out in 2022. They last appeared in 2018, and were beaten by England in the quarterfinals.

The Draw Details

The draw takes place tomorrow (5th December) at 18:00 CET at the Kennedy Center in Washington D.C. Sweden won't be drawn directly - fans are looking out for “UEFA Path B Winner.”

Seeding Info

Teams are split into four pots based on FIFA World Rankings. Pot 1 has the top teams, Pot 4 has the lowest-ranked.

The exceptions are the three host nations in Pot 1, and the four UEFA Playoff winners plus the two Inter-Confederation Playoff winners in Pot 4.

This makes things tough for Sweden (43rd-ranked). If they qualify, they'll be in a group with at least two higher-ranked teams.

Best-Case Scenario

Sweden fans are hoping for a favorable draw, but they're not getting too confident. The draw will reveal what's in store if they make it through the playoffs.

Based on the World Rankings (in brackets), the following group will be the best Sweden can hope for:

1. Canada (27)
2. Australia (26)
3. South Africa (61)
4. Sweden (43)

Canada, ranked 27th, are a relatively easier opponent for Sweden compared to other top seeds. They've struggled in previous World Cups, failing to make it out of the group in '98 and '02.

Australia, South Africa aren't huge threats either. Aussies got to the Round of 16 in 2022, but that's about it.

This scenario puts Sweden in Group B with Canada, and they'd play them in Toronto/Vancouver. Another match in Seattle means Sweden gets to play in cooler climates.

Worst-Case Scenario

Sweden's toughest draw could be against top teams like Argentina, Belgium, or France - all would be challenging.

According to the rankings alone, the toughest group for Sweden would be:

1. Spain (1)
2. Morocco (11)
3. Panama (30)
4. Sweden (43)

Given that no more than two European teams can feature in the same group, drawing Spain would see Sweden avoid the highest-ranked teams in Pots 2 and 3, namely Croatia (11) and Norway (29). Yet this scenario still creates an average ranking of 14 for their three opponents.

There is, however, a second set of potential opponents who also have an average ranking of 14, and it is up to Sweden fans to decide which would be worse:

1. Argentina (2)
2. Croatia (10)
3. Panama (30)
4.  Sweden (43)

What a tough one. Argentina or Spain would be a nightmare. Croatia or Morocco... both tough, but Croatia's experience might make them the tougher opponent.

And what about meeting high-flying, free-scoring neighbours Norway? This is the toughest group that could play host to an all-Scandinavian derby that Sweden could surely do without:

1. Argentina (2)
2. Morocco (11)
3. Norway (29)
4. Sweden (43)

Sweden's fate? Could be a group of dreams with Canada, Australia, and a manageable draw. Or a group of death with tough teams like Spain, Argentina, or Croatia. Guess we'll find out tomorrow!