Rebels on the Move: HTS Advances on Hama

Islamist HTS rebels make significant gains in Syria, pushing towards the strategic city of Hama. What does this mean for the region's fragile balance of power?

Islamist rebels, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, have launched a surprise offensive in Syria, advancing towards the strategic city of Hama. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the rebels were engaged in the “most violent” clashes with government troops, with the rebels managing to seize several cities and towns in the northern Hama countryside.

The situation is dire, with the rebels now just 10 kilometers (6 miles) away from Hama city, according to the Associated Press. The Syrian government, backed by Russian forces, has responded with airstrikes in the Hama region, further escalating the conflict.

The HTS group, formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda, seeks to replace the Assad regime with an Islamic state. As one of the strongest insurgent groups in Syria, HTS has been accused of serving as a base for global al-Qaeda operations.

Syrian government forces are gearing up for a counter-attack, according to the Syrian state news agency SANA. This comes after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that “Syrian and Russian air forces carried out dozens of strikes on the area.” The situation is escalating rapidly, with various factions vying for control.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been a steadfast ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing consistent material support since the Syrian Civil War began in 2011. Putin's intervention was initially triggered by the emergence of the extremist “Islamic State” (IS) in 2015, prompting Russia to launch airstrikes. This longstanding alliance has significantly influenced the dynamics of the conflict.

The current offensive, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, has resulted in significant territorial gains, including the capture of over 100 towns and villages. The rebels have also made strides in Aleppo, cutting off the M5 highway and advancing towards Hama. As the situation continues to unfold, the international community remains vigilant, monitoring the developments and their implications for the region.

Hama is a city of immense strategic importance in Syria, serving as a crucial link between Aleppo and Damascus. Its location makes it a vital connector between these two major cities, and its control is essential for maintaining influence in the region.

The city's significance is further underscored by its connection to the Alawite community, from which Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hails. A rebel takeover of Hama would pose a significant threat to the regime's popular base, according to SOHR director Rami Abdel Rahman. This highlights the high stakes involved in the ongoing conflict in Syria.

Recent developments have seen HTS sweep into Aleppo, and Syrian state news agency SANA has reported airstrikes on Hama province and the rebel-held bastion of Idlib in the northwest. These events underscore the fluid and volatile nature of the conflict in Syria, where control of key cities like Hama can have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in the region.

The conflict, which reignited in November, has resulted in a significant humanitarian toll, with approximately 50,000 people displaced and hundreds of casualties, primarily among fighters, according to United Nations estimates.