China Seethes as Taiwan's Lai Embarks on ‘Transit Diplomacy'

China Fumes Over Taiwan VP's Diplomatic Tour

Lai's visit to Hawaii was followed by “official” visits to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which are...

Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te's diplomatic tour has sparked tensions with China, which views the trip as a challenge to its “One China” policy.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te recently made a “transit” stopover in Hawaii, USA, as part of a week-long tour to visit Taiwan's remaining diplomatic allies in the South Pacific. This visit was notable for its low-key nature, with Lai not receiving a formal government reception.

Despite the lack of official fanfare, Lai was still greeted warmly with a red carpet and traditional Hawaiian garlands. During his two-day stopover, he made an appearance at the East-West Center, a think-tank funded by the US State Department. Here, he delivered a speech, although journalists were asked to leave the room before he began speaking.

Lai's visit to Hawaii was part of a broader tour aimed at strengthening ties with Taiwan's remaining diplomatic allies. This trip comes at a time when tensions between Taiwan and China remain high, with Beijing having recently responded strongly to Lai's inaugural address.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's recent visit to Hawaii marked the beginning of his Pacific tour, which aims to strengthen diplomatic ties with Taiwan's remaining allies. During his stop in Hawaii, Lai met with Governor Josh Green at the state's emergency management agency, discussing disaster preparedness and governance strategies. He also attended a banquet with Hawaii's congressional representatives and state lawmakers, showcasing the strong connections between Taiwan and the US.

Lai's visit to Hawaii was followed by “official” visits to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which are among the 12 remaining countries that recognize Taiwan. Before returning home, Lai is also scheduled to pass through the US island territory of Guam. Additionally, he delivered a closed-door address at the East-West Center, a US-government-linked public diplomacy think tank.

China has strongly condemned Lai's trip, labeling it as “political manipulation” and a “provocation.” Beijing views Taiwan as its territory and opposes any implications of the island's sovereignty. Although the US has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it is obligated under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide defensive arms, which angers China. Beijing has warned of new military drills around Taiwan in response to Lai's trip and has previously referred to him as a “separatist.”

Taiwan is sending several key signals through President Lai's recent actions. Firstly, by visiting Hawaii and meeting with US officials, Taiwan is reaffirming its commitment to strengthening ties with the US, its most important security benefactor ¹. This move is likely aimed at countering China's increasing military pressure on the island.

During his visit, Lai's remarks underscored the gravity of the China-Taiwan situation. By stating that “China is the biggest challenge Taiwan faces,” Lai emphasized the urgent need for international cooperation to prevent conflicts in the region. His warning that “war has no winners” served as a poignant reminder of the devastating consequences of military action.

Lai's phone call with former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi further highlights Taiwan's efforts to bolster its relationships with key US stakeholders. Their discussion on “China's military threats” demonstrates Taiwan's growing concern about China's aggressive military posturing in the region. This concern is well-founded, given China's strong reaction to Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan, which included massive military drills simulating a blockade of the island.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's recent visit to Hawaii and Guam has been seen as a strategic move to reaffirm US-Taiwan ties without crossing Beijing's red lines. By choosing these remote locations and avoiding meetings with high-ranking US government officials, Lai's visit provides a symbolic reminder of the importance of the US-Taiwan relationship.

Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, believes that these transit points are deliberately chosen to avoid media attention and political controversy. As Sung told DW, “These transit points give Beijing fewer excuses to throw a tantrum.” He further explained that Lai's approach signals to the world that Taiwan's new leadership prioritizes substantive relations over symbolic gestures, all while maintaining a relatively low-key manner.

China is responding to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's Pacific tour with a mix of diplomatic protests and military posturing. According to Raymond Kuo, a senior political scientist at RAND, China tends to “take any small pretext and blow it up to whatever they want it to be.” Kuo expressed skepticism about whether Taiwan's efforts would “lower the temperature” for Beijing, emphasizing that the Chinese leader Xi Jinping's reaction is unpredictable. “Ultimately, it really depends on [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping, the only one person [who] really knows how he's going to react,” Kuo said.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has lodged official protests and hinted at military drills in response to Lai's tour. Reuters cited anonymous security sources from Taiwan, suggesting that Beijing could launch new war games as soon as this weekend, a day after Lai concludes his Pacific tour. Taiwan's Defense Ministry has declined to comment on the matter. China's military exercises could set a precedent for increased military activity in the Taiwan Strait, potentially desensitizing Taipei and Washington to future provocations.

Donald Trump has been vocal about Taiwan increasing its defense spending and has also accused Taiwan's top-tier chip manufacturers of taking American jobs. In response to these criticisms, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te pledged to enhance Taiwan's self-defense and strengthen cooperation with the US in the semiconductor sector during a closed-door speech in Hawaii.

Lai's visit to Guam, which has a Naval base crucial to the US' Indo-Pacific strategy, holds significant symbolic value. According to Kuo from RAND, the visit highlighted the common interests between the US and Taiwan, particularly in disaster response and military contingency planning. Kuo noted, “This was a relatively muted but still kind of a positive signal between the US and Taiwan.”

Taiwan has been steadily increasing its defense spending since 2016. The current defense budget is around 2.5% of GDP, with plans to increase it to 3% in the future. However, some analysts argue that even 3% may not be enough, given the growing threats from China.