Trump's Return Ignites Nuclear Debate in South Korea

Trump's Comeback Sparks Nuclear Fears in South Korea

“I think the alliance will experience significant friction because of the overall outlook under Trump, which included security...”

Donald Trump's return to office fuels nuclear debate in South Korea, sparking concerns about regional security and US commitments.

Donald Trump's presidential election win sent shockwaves to South Korea, putting national security in the spotlight. The concerns stem from Trump's past statements and actions regarding the U.S.-South Korea alliance, particularly on cost-sharing and the presence of U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula.

During his previous term, Trump demanded South Korea increase its contribution to cover 100 percent of non-personnel costs for U.S. military presence, which led to tense negotiations and a stalemate. His stance sparked worries about the potential withdrawal of U.S. troops, a move that could significantly impact regional stability and security.

Concerns:

Cost-Sharing: Trump may demand Seoul cover more costs, including strategic asset deployments and rotational units, beyond the existing SMA framework.

U.S. Force Presence: Trump's past proposals to remove all troops or reduce the number of U.S. forces in South Korea raise concerns about the alliance's future.

North Korea Threat: Trump's approach could embolden North Korea, advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, and straining inter-Korean tension.

South Korea's insecurities about Trump's intentions are compounded by his comments on potential bilateral talks with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. The Yoon administration, though more inclined to lean toward the U.S. position, may struggle to accept Trump's demands, potentially leading to a downgrade or cancellation of joint military exercises and strategic deployments.

Overall, Trump's return to the White House has ignited uncertainty about the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, with far-reaching implications for regional security and stability.

The debate over South Korea's nuclear deterrence has been reignited with Donald Trump's potential return to office. Han Dong-hoon, chairman of the ruling People Power Party, recently highlighted the potential benefits of a Trump victory for South Korea's nuclear policy. This comes after Trump's previous administration applied significant pressure on Seoul, sparking concerns about the need for South Korea to develop its own nuclear capabilities.

South Korea's current reliance on the US for nuclear deterrence has been strengthened through the U.S.-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), established in April 2023. The NCG has facilitated joint nuclear and strategic planning, ensuring the safety and security of South Koreans and US servicemembers on the Korean Peninsula. However, with Trump's transactional approach to international relations, some argue that South Korea needs to reconsider its nuclear strategy.

Considerations for South Korea's Nuclear Deterrence:

US Commitment: The US has reaffirmed its commitment to extended deterrence, backed by its full range of capabilities, including nuclear.

Nuclear Consultative Group: The NCG has strengthened US-ROK cooperation on extended deterrence and managed the threat posed by North Korea.

South Korea's Nuclear Options: Developing its own nuclear deterrence could provide South Korea with greater autonomy, but also raises concerns about regional stability and non-proliferation.

Ultimately, the decision to develop its own nuclear deterrence will depend on South Korea's evaluation of its security needs and the reliability of its alliance with the US.

“Acquiring nuclear potential that is, having the right to enrich and reprocess uranium is not nuclear arms possession per se,” The Korea Herald quoted Han as saying. “But we would be capable of moving on to that stage at any moment if North Korea escalates its nuclear threats,” he added. ”I think we should be prepared for such a scenario amid the shifting power dynamics and world order.”

North Korea-South Korea relations have hit an all-time low, sparking concerns about regional security. Retired army general Han Ki-ho suggests that South Korea may have no choice but to develop its own nuclear weapons, echoing sentiments from other politicians like Han Dong-hoon, chairman of the ruling People Power Party. This shift in tone comes after Donald Trump's presidential election win, which has South Koreans questioning the reliability of the US nuclear umbrella.

South Korea has the technological capabilities to produce nuclear weapons, but doing so would come with significant consequences. Building a nuclear arsenal would require a major national redirection of economy and diplomacy, negatively affecting nearly all facets of South Korean life for decades. It would also mean repurposing civilian reactors to produce plutonium or constructing centrifuge facilities to make highly enriched uranium, taking at least two years to produce enough bomb fuel.

Considerations:

Economic Impact: Developing nuclear weapons would compete for resources with South Korea's conventional military, potentially derailing its military export business.

International Relations: The US may end its military alliance and economic partnership with South Korea, leading to congressional sanctions and trade sufferings.

Civilian Nuclear Industry: A nuclear arsenal would undermine South Korea's civilian nuclear industry and global exports, jeopardizing its reputation as a world-class nuclear power program.

South Korea's nuclear energy program has been a success story, with the country wisely focusing on reactor fuel fabrication, construction, and operation. However, pursuing nuclear weapons would require significant investments in dedicated nuclear facilities, testing, and delivery systems. The question remains whether South Korea is willing to sacrifice its economic miracle and global influence to join the nuclear club.

“Rhetorically, nuclear weapons are on the table,” said Mason Richey, a professor of politics and international relations at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. “And that will be significantly affected by how the Trump administration approaches the alliance with South Korea and how it approaches the relationship with North Korea.”

“In general, the more the Trump administration denigrates and neglects the alliance with the South and the more it shows signs of wanting to reach an arms control deal with North Korea that provides Pyongyang with nuclear weapons status, the more South Korea will entertain its intention of obtaining its own nuclear weapons,” Richey explained.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is becoming increasingly tense, with concerns mounting that Donald Trump's potential return to office could lead to a deal with North Korea that bans long-range missiles but effectively recognizes the country as a nuclear power. This would leave South Korea vulnerable, given its proximity to the North Korean border, with Seoul only 30 miles away. Recent surveys reveal that around 70% of South Koreans now support developing and deploying an independent nuclear deterrent, a stark indication of the anxiety felt by the South Korean public.

Meanwhile, NATO is strengthening its ties with Indo-Pacific partners, including South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, to address shared security concerns. This cooperation aims to counter challenges posed by China, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and emerging threats in cyber, space, and technology. The NATO-Indo-Pacific partnership focuses on key areas such as:

Cyber Security: Enhancing cooperation to combat cyber threats and protect critical infrastructure.

Maritime Security: Strengthening cooperation to ensure freedom of navigation and secure sea lanes.

Space and Emerging Technologies: Collaborating on research and development to address emerging security challenges.

Disinformation and Climate Change: Combating disinformation and addressing climate change's impact on regional security.

NATO's expansion into the Indo-Pacific region underscores the

interconnectedness of global security and the need for collective action to address pressing challenges.

Developing nuclear weapons is a complex and costly process for South Korea, making it unlikely to happen overnight. The cost of developing and maintaining such weapons is extremely high, requiring billions of dollars. However, with the left-leaning Democratic Party controlling the South Korean parliament, allocating funds for a nuclear arsenal is essentially impossible.

Another significant hurdle is the resistance from people living near nuclear installations, who fear being targeted in the event of a conflict. Although South Korea has a civilian atomic energy sector, it has agreed with the US to refrain from obtaining fissile material for nuclear weapons. This agreement restricts South Korea's ability to develop nuclear capabilities.

Challenges to Nuclear Development:

Financial Constraints: Billions of dollars required for development and maintenance

Political Opposition: Left-leaning Democratic Party controls parliament

Public Resistance: Concerns about safety and targeting near nuclear installations

International Agreements: Treaty commitment with the US restricts fissile material acquisition

Despite these challenges, some experts believe a Trump administration might be willing to release South Korea from its treaty commitment, but at a significant cost. South Korea's nuclear latency, however, suggests it could develop nuclear weapons quickly if necessary, with estimates ranging from one to three years. The country's existing ballistic missile technology and submarine-launched ballistic missiles also provide a potential foundation for nuclear capabilities.

Professor Lim Eun-jung from Kongju National University believes that Donald Trump's Cabinet picks indicate a tough stance on North Korea, ensuring the defense of South Korea and eliminating the need for an independent nuclear deterrent. Trump's choices, including loyalists like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Doug Burgum, and Tulsi Gabbard, suggest a prioritization of loyalty in top positions. This approach may translate to a strong commitment to defending South Korea against North Korean threats, alleviating the need for Seoul to develop its own nuclear capabilities.

However, it's essential to consider the potential implications of Trump's energy and climate policies on his approach to international relations and national security. Trump's emphasis on fossil fuels, regulatory rollbacks, and scaling back renewable energy policies may influence his stance on global cooperation and conflict resolution.

Cabinet Picks and Their Implications:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Potential candidate for a senior post, with focuses on health and environmental matters

Doug Burgum: Possible contender for Energy Secretary, with experience as North Dakota Governor

Tulsi Gabbard: Honorary co-chair of Trump's transition team, with potential roles in education or environmental policy.

These appointments may shape Trump's approach to international relations, including his stance on North Korea and the defense of South Korea.

“Now Trump is making his appointments, it is clear he is choosing people who will be firm on North Korea and China and I do not feel that the next US government will be very different from the [Joe] Biden administration,” she told DW.

Evidence of North Korean troops in Russia has emerged, raising concerns about the region's stability. This development comes as President-elect Donald Trump announces his cabinet picks, including Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Both Hegseth and Rubio are viewed as hawks on issues related to America's Asian rivals.

Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer with tours in Afghanistan and Iraq, is expected to take a tough stance on military issues. His selection aligns with Trump's pledge to eliminate “woke” initiatives in the military and fire generals involved in the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal.

Meanwhile, Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State signals a strong stance on foreign policy, particularly regarding China and Iran. His experience as a senator and previous presidential candidate will likely shape Trump's approach to international relations.

Trump's Cabinet Picks:

Defense Secretary: Pete Hegseth, former Army National Guard officer and co-host of “Fox & Friends Weekend”

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio, senator and former presidential candidate

Attorney General: Matt Gaetz, congressman and loyal Trump ally

Homeland Security Secretary: Kristi Noem, South Dakota governor and Trump ally

These appointments suggest Trump's second term will prioritize national security and foreign policy, potentially impacting the situation with North Korean troops in Russia.

“The South Korean government really does not want to be bypassed by the US and for Trump to directly communicate with North Korea on issues that affect our national security,” Lim said. “Seoul does not want the US to underestimate the importance of our alliance.”

Richey believes that South Korea's potential development and deployment of nuclear weapons hangs in the balance with Trump's presidency. He notes, “I think the alliance will experience significant friction because of the overall outlook under Trump, which included security burden sharing, trade and other factors, which could lead to negligence or even active toxicity towards Washington's allies.” This sentiment suggests that Trump's approach to international relations, particularly with regards to burden sharing and trade, may strain the US-South Korea alliance, potentially pushing South Korea to explore nuclear options.

According to experts, South Korea's interest in nuclear weapons is largely driven by the growing North Korean threat and concerns about US commitment to defending its allies. The US has traditionally provided a nuclear umbrella to South Korea, but tensions surrounding Trump's possible withdrawal of US troops unless South Korea increases financial contributions have sparked worries.

Key Factors Influencing South Korea's Nuclear Decision:

Security Burden Sharing: Trump's demands for South Korea to increase financial contributions for hosting US troops

Trade Tensions: Strained relations between the US and South Korea due to trade disagreements

North Korean Threat: Growing nuclear arsenal and aggressive posturing from North Korea

US Commitment: Questions about the reliability of US defense commitments to South Korea

These factors contribute to the complexity of the issue, and Richey's statement highlights the uncertainty surrounding South Korea's nuclear future under Trump's leadership.