India Kashmir's Militant Threat: Old Patterns, New Challenges

Militancy 2.0: Kashmir's New Challenge

“This security grid ensured that if there was an incident of militancy there would be a mechanism where...”

Kashmir's militancy landscape is undergoing a shift, with foreign fighters filling the gap as local recruitment declines, experts warn.

A blast occurred on November 3 in a bustling Sunday market in Srinagar, the largest city in India-administered Kashmir. The explosion resulted in the injury of 12 civilians, one of whom, a 45-year-old woman, later succumbed to her injuries in the hospital. Following the incident, the police detained three men allegedly associated with the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

Although the grenade attack was the first in Srinagar in two years, it was not an isolated incident. In recent months, Jammu and Kashmir have witnessed a surge in militant activities. Experts describe this trend as a “shift” in the militants' strategy, indicating a geographical shift in focus from the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley to the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

The recent attacks have sparked concerns about a “new wave” and “renewed terror” in the region. The evolving nature of militancy in Kashmir, characterized by the emergence of homegrown militant outfits and local recruitments, poses significant challenges to regional stability and security.

Militancy in Jammu and Kashmir appears to be on the rise, with some observers suggesting that the recent peaceful election in the region may have actually irked militants and prompted them to increase their activities. According to Ayjaz Wani, a strategic analyst at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi, “The elections frustrated terror groups and forced them to activate the sleeper cells to sabotage the democratic process.”

The region has a long history of militancy, with various groups seeking independence from India or merger with Pakistan. India and Pakistan have both claimed the region since partition in 1947, and the dispute has led to numerous conflicts and ongoing tensions. The Indian government has accused Pakistan of backing militant groups in the region, a claim that Pakistan has consistently denied.

Despite the denial, there are concerns that militancy is indeed on the rise in Jammu and Kashmir. The region has seen an increase in militant attacks and infiltration attempts in recent years, and the Indian security forces have been working to counter these threats. The situation remains volatile, with the potential for further violence and instability.

The militancy in Jammu and Kashmir is a complex issue with deep historical roots. The region's strategic significance and the competing claims of India and Pakistan have contributed to the ongoing tensions and violence. A lasting resolution to the conflict will require a nuanced understanding of these complexities and a willingness to engage in dialogue and diplomacy.

Despite concerns about a resurgence in militancy in Jammu and Kashmir, many observers argue that the number of fatalities in recent attacks does not support this narrative. Ajai Sahni, the executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), notes that the overall trend in militancy-related violence has been declining since 2006. “The overall trend after 2006 has been a declining one. There is no reason to believe that there is any escalation,” Sahni said.

According to data published by SATP, the number of militancy-related deaths, which includes civilians, security personnel, and militants themselves, has fluctuated over the years. In 2012, the number of fatalities was at its lowest, with 121 deaths recorded. In contrast, 2018 saw the highest number of fatalities, with 452 people killed. This year, the death toll is currently equal to that of 2012. Sahni attributes the perception of a militant surge to “hysterical” media speculation, rather than any actual increase in violence.

Ajai Sahni, a security expert, has expressed skepticism about the notion that recent incidents in Jammu and Kashmir represent a new trend or escalation in militancy. “Every time there is a random cluster of incidents, everybody starts screaming about escalation, new strategy, new trends,” Sahni said. He argues that a trend requires sustained activity over time, and that these assessments are often “hysterical and sometimes motivated” to create a perceived threat that exceeds the actual one.

Sahni also questions the idea that the recent attacks in Jammu represent a strategic shift in militancy. He points out that fewer troops have been deployed in the region over the last decade, weakening the “security grid” that protected the area. This, Sahni suggests, may be a more significant factor in the recent incidents than any supposed new trend in militancy. Additionally, India has been arming civilian militias in restive border zones, which could potentially impact the security situation in the region.

“The overall trend after 2006 has been a declining one. There is no reason to believe that there is any escalation.”

“This security grid ensured that if there was an incident of militancy there would be a mechanism where that area could be completely locked down from all sides within a very short period of time. As a result of which in most cases if a militant incident occurred the militant would not survive,” Sahni said. “Because of the dilution of the grid, many gaps had come up as due to which it was easier for militants to move about and to hide out and also possible for them to execute operations and escape alive,” he added.

The Kashmir insurgency has seen its fair share of fluctuations in support from residents over the decades. One notable period was between 2015 and 2016, when young militant leaders like Burhan Wani gained a cult-like following, largely fueled by social media. However, observers have reported a decline in recruitment since then, with “foreign militants” - a term used by Indian officials to describe guerrillas from Pakistan - filling the gap. Estimates suggest that Pakistani militants now outnumber domestic fighters in India-administered Kashmir.

This shift has significant implications for the region. The Indian government has implemented various policies aimed at reducing militancy, including Operation All Out, launched in 2017 to dismantle militant hideouts and take down their leaders. However, these efforts have been met with skepticism by many Kashmiris, who view the Indian government's actions as heavy-handed and oppressive. As Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management and South Asia Terrorism Portal, notes, “The overall trend after 2006 has been a declining one. There is no reason to believe that there is any escalation.”

The situation is further complicated by the presence of Pakistan-based militant groups, such as Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), which has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US State Department. JEM's primary goal is to drive India from the disputed region of Kashmir and establish Pakistani sovereignty. The group has been responsible for several attacks in India-administered Kashmir, including a suicide bombing in Pulwama in 2019 that killed over 40 Indian security personnel.

In conclusion, the Kashmir insurgency is a complex and multifaceted issue, with various factors contributing to the ongoing violence. While some observers argue that recruitment has declined since the 2015-2016 era, others point to the increasing presence of “foreign militants” from Pakistan. As the situation continues to unfold, it is essential to consider the perspectives of all stakeholders involved and to work towards a peaceful and sustainable resolution.

“There is a sudden increase in foreign terrorists. As per reports of the intelligence agencies, there are about 120 terrorists operating in Jammu and Kashmir at the moment. Out of which, 80 are operating in the Kashmir valley and 40 in the Jammu region. Out of the 80 in Kashmir valley, 61 are foreign terrorists. Only 19 are local. In Jammu, roughly 35-36 are foreign terrorists. The major component right now is the Pakistani terrorist,” Shesh Paul Vaid, former Director General of Jammu & Kashmir Police told DW.

According to Wani, two key factors have contributed to the significant decline in local recruitment: “positive changes” in the regional perception of militancy and enhanced security measures implemented by the authorities.

“For the past 30 years, Kashmir has been used by Pakistan and its military to distract citizens from domestic political and economic issues,” he said.

“Many young people in Kashmir now feel that Pakistan has deceived them by exploiting religion,” he said. 

“Ultimately, it is clear that Pakistan's support for terrorism is not because of its affinity towards Kashmiri Muslims, but it is owing to Pakistan's own geostrategic and geopolitical designs to hamper India's rapid rise on the global stage,” he added.

Sahni noted that there have been periodic attempts to boost the local aspect of militancy in Kashmir.

“Right now local recruitment is at a very low level because the survival rate of terrorists today in the region is very low,” he said.

However, Vaid cautioned that the recent attacks in the region are likely the handiwork of foreign militants.

“There is a likelihood of major terror strikes in the coming days. Foreign terrorist component increase will pose a new threat to the stability in the region,” he said.