Shigeru Ishiba to Lead Japan as New Prime Minister

Shigeru Ishiba to Succeed as Japan's Prime Minister

“I will do my utmost to believe in the people, to speak the truth with courage and sincerity and to make this country a safe and...”

Japan's ruling LDP chooses Shigeru Ishiba as leader, paving way for premiership. Explore his stance on China, North Korea, and economic growth.

Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's 67-year-old former defense minister, has secured the top spot to become the country's next prime minister after winning the leadership votes of the ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on September 27. This victory came after a runoff election where Ishiba defeated Sanae Takaichi, a nationalist rival who would have made history as Japan's first female leader, with a narrow margin of 215 votes to 194.

Ishiba's emotional response to his win was palpable as he smiled, removed his glasses to wipe away tears, and bowed repeatedly amidst congratulations from his supporters at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo. This moment marks a significant shift in Japan's leadership, especially after incumbent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his decision not to seek re-election amid record-low approval ratings and controversy surrounding a slush fund scandal.

The 2024 LDP presidential election, held on September 27, was notable for being the first since the abolishment of most party factions following the slush fund scandal. Ishiba, considered a centrist, emerged victorious among nine candidates, a record number. His win effectively guarantees his position as the next Prime Minister of Japan, given the LDP's majority in the National Diet.

“I will do my utmost to believe in the people, to speak the truth with courage and sincerity and to make this country a safe and secure place where everyone can live with a smile on their face once again,” he said in a short speech.

This isn't his first time running for the top spot; Ishiba previously came close to becoming prime minister in 2012 but lost to Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest-serving leader who was tragically assassinated in 2022.

The LDP has dominated Japan's politics for nearly uninterrupted decades, holding a majority that virtually guarantees Ishiba's election as premier by parliament on October 1, 2024. Ishiba's victory marks the end of a long journey, having run for party leadership multiple times, including in 2008, 2012, 2018, and 2020. His perseverance finally paid off in the 2024 LDP presidential election, where he defeated Sanae Takaichi in a runoff.

Ishiba's political career spans over three decades, with notable positions including Minister of Defense and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. As a member of the House of Representatives since 1986, Ishiba has established himself as a key figure within the LDP. His reputation as a political maverick stems from his willingness to criticize his own party and his relatively liberal stances on social issues.

Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's incoming prime minister, faces significant regional security challenges, including China's growing ties with Russia and North Korea's prohibited missile tests. China, however, has expressed interest in strengthening its relationship with Japan, emphasizing the mutual benefits of long-term, stable, and positive China-Japan relations. This gesture may ease tensions, but Ishiba's leadership will be crucial in navigating these complex dynamics.

Domestically, Ishiba's agenda includes revitalizing Japan's economy as the central bank transitions away from years of monetary easing that weakened the yen. His economic policies are expected to move toward a more hawkish stance, as indicated by the yen's surge following his election. Key areas of focus will be tackling Japan's rising inflation and promoting real wage growth. Ishiba has also pledged to address social issues, such as allowing married women to retain their maiden names and reducing Japan's reliance on nuclear energy.

Regional Security Challenges:

• Addressing China's growing ties with Russia and North Korea
• Countering North Korea's prohibited missile tests
• Navigating Japan's relationship with the US amidst regional tensions

Economic Revitalization:

• Transitioning away from monetary easing
• Tackling rising inflation
• Promoting real wage growth
• Strengthening the yen

Shiba's progressive vision and policy commitments have earned him strong public support, but his leadership will be tested by these pressing domestic and regional challenges.

The Japanese yen saw a significant surge on September 27, jumping to 142.94 against the dollar from 146.49 yen when the matchup between Ishiba and Takaichi was announced. This shift is likely a response to Ishiba's endorsement of the Bank of Japan's move away from its unconventional ultra-loose policies, which policymakers view as positive news.

Ishiba's leadership agenda includes revitalizing rural areas, a crucial step in addressing Japan's regional disparities. Additionally, he proposes establishing a government agency focused on disaster prevention, a vital measure given Japan's vulnerability to natural disasters. These commitments demonstrate Ishiba's focus on domestic development and resilience.

The Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leadership election saw a record nine candidates participate in the first round, marking a significant shift after the party's historically dominant factions dissolved due to a funding scandal. This change reflects the party's efforts to reform and address internal issues. Ishiba's victory in this context underscores his ability to navigate complex party dynamics and emerge as a strong leader.

Key Highlights from Ishiba's Victory:

Economic Revitalization: Ishiba supports the Bank of Japan's shift away from ultra-loose policies.

Rural Development: He aims to revitalize rural areas and address regional disparities.

Disaster Prevention: Establishing a government agency focused on disaster prevention is a priority.

Party Reform: Ishiba's victory reflects the LDP's efforts to address internal issues and reform.

Shinjiro Koizumi, former environment minister and son of ex-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, secured third place in the LDP leadership election, trailing behind winners Shigeru Ishiba and runner-up Sanae Takaichi.